Blog Archives

The Two Paths to Collapse

As a general rule, there are two paths to collapse: gradual erosion and sudden crash. The two are intertwined, of course; in most cases, the system slowly loses vigor, resources, efficiency, etc. (erosion) which leaves it so weakened that a crisis that would have easily been overcome in the past triggers a catastrophic decline of production and order.

My new book explores these system dynamics in the present: Pathfinding our Destiny: Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic. As the title suggests, we’ve got a window to prevent the final descent, but it’s years, not decades.

There are two basic drivers of systemic erosion, drivers that have little to do with leadership or policy. Our current delusion is that changing leaders and tweaking policies are enough to stave off systemic erosion, decline and collapse, but the two dynamics cannot be so easily thwarted.

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Please Assume Crash Positions

You know how to get into crash positions, correct? Here’s your guide:

Very few punters expect a real downturn here in stocks. The reasons for confidence are many: the Fed has our back, buy the dip has worked great and will continue to work great, the Fed won’t raise rates until December (if ever), the Powers That Be will keep the market aloft lest a plunging market upset the election of the status quo candidate, and so on.

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Do we need a war on air shows?

An article I wrote shortly after the Shoreham air crash:

Imagine you’re driving down the road laughing along to Radio 1, excited to be seeing your relatives for the first time in months who live a good couple of hours away from you. Your beautiful wife (or husband) is sat next to you with her (or his) bare feet up on the dashboard and your kids are both asleep in the back looking as angelic as ever; all strapped in and safe, travel-sickness bands on and everything. Occasionally, your wife (or husband) gives you the latest Facebook update: “Your Aunty’s just posted a picture of the planes from her house.” Life is good.

Then, BAMMM! A giant fireball of a plane lands on the road in front of you and that’s the story of you…

Shoreham air crash: Man films Hunter hitting A27 road (BBC)

Shoreham air crash: Man films Hunter hitting A27 road (BBC)

Fortunately, I wasn’t travelling on the A27 on Saturday 22 August 2015 to visit my Aunty and Uncle, who live in Shoreham, when a 1950s Hawker Hunter jet crashed into traffic during The Shoreham Air Show, but numerous others were and, tragically, at least 11 of them have lost their lives as a result. And they are not the only ones of late; at CarFest North, Cheshire, the pilot of a Folland Gnat aircraft died when his plane came down on 01 August 2015, and there is a long list of accidents and incidents at air shows around the world. Also, on 20 June 2015, a video of a Red Devil skydiver being caught in mid-air and saved by one of his team-mates went viral after his parachute became tangled during a performance at The Whitehaven Air Show.

Now, is all of this aeronautical acrobatics worth it?

When compared to the number of deaths from terrorist attacks in the UK this year, air shows have been far more dangerous (there have been no reported terrorist attacks so far this year > See). Tony Blair and his government invaded a whole country for less than the threat that air shows pose. Although, we still don’t know the reason why Tony Blair went to “war” with Iraq because of the deliberate inefficiency of the Chilcot Inquiry. Where are those weapons of mass destruction again, Tony? Tone?

The Tony Blair 'selfie' (Guardian)

The Tony Blair ‘selfie’ (Guardian)

By Tony Blair’s logic, our terrorist threat level should always be at critical (because the air shows are already here) and we should have the army invading air shows across the country; boots on the ground as both David Cameron and Barack Obama like to say, typically referring to sending troops into Middle-Eastern countries to remove dictators. Libya, that went well, didn’t it? Tony Blair, David Cameron and Barack Obama would all have the RAF carpet bombing air shows here, there and everywhere, or drone-striking civilians in case they might be a reckless pilot; collateral damage they would say.

So, should we declare war on air shows? We already have a war on terror (foreign terror not our terror) and a war on drugs (not if you’re rich, though, or a politician). Air shows are the real enemy!

@mother_shipton

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Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble: When Authorities Buy Assets to Prop Up Markets

The actual line from Shakespeare’s Macbeth is double, double, toil and trouble, fire burn, and cauldron bubble but for the purposes of analyzing what happens when authorities prop up market bubbles by directly buying assets, bubble, bubble, toil and trouble is also appropriate.

China’s authorities seem to have chanted Shakespeare’s magical incantation nonstop this year, as the Shenzhen and other Chinese stock market indices have more than doubled. This chart illustrates what the Chinese authorities were aiming for: a bubble that just keeps expanding and never pops:

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Insider Warns Credit Market is SHUTTING DOWN, $75 Trillion Implosion Looms

A real crisis is developing far faster than what I envisioned that is impacting the 75 Trillion Shadow Banking sector which is on the verge of implosion.
Credit markets are almost closed, I am being told! I REPEAT again the CREDIT markets are almost closed!

The following is chilling to say the least…

Click here for more from insider warning that CREDIT MARKETS ARE SHUTTING DOWN:

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Jim Willie: US Dollar Will Not Survive 2015!

Something big, ugly, and nasty this way comes.
The year will go down in history as extremely messy, extremely chaotic, and extremely important in the demise of the USDollar.
The Year 2015 will be known for the USDollar demise with full fireworks.
With the acceleration of events in progress and in view, the pressures will grow against the entire King Dollar Court, the corrupt fortresses in Wall Street and London Centre, the crime syndicate hive.
The USDollar will not survive the year.

Click here for Jim Willie’s 2015 USDollar forecast:

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4 Factors Signaling Volatility Will Return With A Vengeance

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In this article, renown financial system critic and best-selling author Nomi Prins identifies the 4 brewing risk factors that are swiftly propelling us into a new era of higher and more unpredictable price volatility in the financial markets.
The relative stability of the past half-decade is over, and those with capital invested in the system ignore the arriving turbulence at their peril.
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Fund Manager: Smoking Gun Evidence That Derivatives Melt-Down HAS BEGUN Behind the Scenes!

With gold & silver hammered yet again Friday, Fund Manager Dave Kranzler joins the show, discussing:

  • Cartel algos send gold & silver down the elevator shaft on NO NEWS- whats amazing is they don’t even try to hide it anymore
  • Are we setting up for a short squeeze on next week’s FOMC, or is The Fed setting up the metals to be smashed through their lows for an Epic Waterfall- washout bottom on the FOMC?
  • Reverse Repos Go Parabolic: Has a ‘Liquidity Shock’ Derivatives Melt-Down Begun? Kranzler provides SMOKING GUN evidence why the answer is YES 

Click here for the SD Weekly Metals & Markets With The Doc, Eric Dubin, and Fund Manager Dave Kranzler:

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Fund Manager: Economy is Entering Crash Mode!

The business inventory to sales ratio is starting to mirror the stock market and the dollar and go parabolic.
Given that the economy appears to be entering “crash mode,” and given that the money supply is now almost 5x higher than it was in 2009, and given that Treasury debt outstanding is now $7 trillion dollars – or 64% – higher now than in 2009, and given that interest rates can only go negative, I would suggest that the Fed is out of tricks and what is coming at us in the system is going to be much WORSE than what occurred in 2008.

Click here for more on why this fund manager believes the US economy has entered CRASH MODE:

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2015 is the most traumatic year you have ever witnessed

Happy new year!

“2014 was a great year but there is a storm brewing and I am willing to bet my credibility on 2015 being one of the most traumatic years, if not the most traumatic year you have ever witnessed. It is time to sit up and take notice of what could potentially unfold that will wipe out the majority of your net worth including your bank account balance and any pension you may have. I know this will come across as alarmist and I want you to know that I really DO intend to come across this way because you have much to lose, even if you think you don’t. I am sick of warning people about what is coming and I want to write about it in a way that is somewhat technical but also put it in a way that most people should understand.”

Read more: 2015 will not be as easy as 2014

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BO POLNY ON 2015: THE COMING INFLATIONARY SPIKE & DEFLATIONARY BEAR MARKET CYCLE THAT DEVASTATES THE WORLD!

Cycle analysis indicates the US Market Cycle is presently completing a 33+ year Bull Market Cycle and once complete, a Deflationary Bear Market Cycle will grip the US Markets in the year 2015 that will DEVASTATE the World.
Before a Deflationary Cycle grips the US Market and the World, FIRST expect an Inflationary Gold spike to $2000 catching everyone off guard and leaving all but the resolute Gold and Silver Bulls behind!
Unlike the previous recession that followed the collapse of 2008, there is no way out of this one.
The time to finalize preparations for what’s coming is NOW.  

It’s going to go from bad to worse to terrible and our World as we know it will change forever!
A $1300 Gold price is soon to be history as Gold Spikes into $2000 before year end as the third and final Gold cycle of 7-years in to 2020/21 and $10,000+ gets under way!

Click here for more from Bo Polny on the coming bear market CRASH in 2015:

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Are We Addicted to Failure?

Like all addicts, Central Planners are confident they can manage the monkey on their back. But this is a self-serving illusion.

Addiction is many things, but beneath its complexities it is a self-destructive expression of the desire to avoid or suppress pain. The pain might be physical or the stuff of the mind, memories or inner demons or tortured misgivings about one’s choices, soul and life.

Though the self-destructive aspects of the addiction are painfully visible to observers, to the addict they represent a solution: perhaps not the ideal one or even a good one, but a solution nonetheless.

Fear plays a big part in many addictions–fear of life without the addictive salve. The fear in an addict’s eyes when the fix is not forthcoming is haunting to all who witness it.

To the non-addicted observer, addictions are not successes; they are failures of one kind or another, and those who care about the addict seek some way to extract the addict from the grip of his/her addiction, and from the fear that often drives it.

I have recently been wondering if America is addicted to failure. 

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