Blog Archives

Here We Go Again: Our Double-Bubble Economy

Well, folks, here we go again: we have a double-bubble economy in housing and stocks, and a third difficult-to-chart bubble in greed, euphoria and credulity.

Feast your eyes on Housing Bubble #2, a.k.a. the Echo Bubble:

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A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to Market Complacency / Euphoria

A relatively reliable measure of complacency/euphoria in the stock market just hit levels last seen in late January, just before stocks reversed in a massive meltdown, surprising all the complacent/euphoric Bulls.

The measure is the put-call ratio in equities. Since this time is different, and the market is guaranteed to roar to new all-time highs, we can ignore this (of course).

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About That “S&P 500 Will Be 2,150 by Christmas” Call….

So this megaphone playing out again is just plain crazy.

Back on October 13, when the stock market was in free-fall, I prepared this chart showing a potential megaphone pattern. With major indicators (such as the MACD and stochastics) looking decidedly bearish, the idea that a rally would soon return the S&P 500 to the 2,030 area seemed crazy:

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