Blog Archives

Markets That Live by the Fed, Die by the Fed

All eyes are again on the Federal Reserve, as everyone understands that the Fed is the market— the stock market, the bond market, the art market, the housing market, etc. All markets have been driven higher by one force: central bank money creation and distribution to the financial sector of financiers and corporations, the richest of the rich.

What few seem to grasp (because they’re paid not to?) is the Fed is powerless over what actually matters in a healthy economy:


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The Ball Is In The Fed’s Court: Will The Empire Strike Back?

Here’s the perfect example of the difficulty in understanding President Trump when it comes to him being either pure genius or just having dumb luck.

Last week, we all know what the President said – I think I wrote up three articles on it because I felt it was that important.

For those who don’t know what he said, the President said, two days in a row, that he is not pleased with a strong dollar or the Fed raising interest rates.

In other words, he is publicly calling for a weak dollar policy, and he is telling the Fed not to raise rates.

Here’s where that difficulty in interpreting the President comes in – The Fed can’t strike back this week.


Radio silence.

You see, traditionally, the Fed will maintain what is essentially “radio silence” the week before an FOMC meeting week, and that means they’re not parading the various Fed Heads around in speeches and television interviews to ‘jawbone’ the markets.

The next FOMC meeting is next Tuesday and Wednesday, with the statement and rate hike decision being released at 2:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday, August 1st. There is no press conference next week, and as such, most people are expecting the Fed to hold on interest rates (CME Group shows a probability of only 3.5% for a rate hike next week).

So I ask if the President is pure genius or if he just got lucky?

If he is pure genius, then he knew


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Where To Invest When (Almost) Everything’s in a Bubble

Now that almost every asset class is in a bubble, the question of where to invest one’s capital has become particularly vexing. The ashes of wealth consumed by the 2008-09 Global Financial Meltdown are still warm, at least to those who never recovered, and so buying assets at nosebleed valuations in the hopes of earning another 5% aren’t very compelling to anyone pursuing common-sense risk management.

As it happens, I wrote a whole book on this vexing question, An Unconventional Guide to Investing in Troubled Times.

I can’t summarize all the ideas presented in the book in one brief blog entry, but some basic principles will serve us well when bubbles abound.


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