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These Are Not Signs of a Healthy Market

The implicit narrative of the latest rally in stocks is that this is just another normal rally in the ongoing 10-year long Bull market. Nice, but do these three charts look “normal” to you? Let’s take a quick glance at a daily chart of the S&P 500 (SPX), a weekly chart of TLT, the exchange-traded fund of the US Treasury 20-year bond, and silver.

In other words, let’s look at three different assets: stocks, bonds and one of the precious metals.

Even the most cursory glance reveals there is nothing normal about any of these charts. The recent action in the SPX is anything but normal: yet another announcement of yet another (low-level nothing-burger) trade meeting opens a gap big enough for a semi to drive through, punching through the upper Bollinger Band, and on the heels of a previous big gap up, also on no fundamental news.


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A Possible Trade from Where We Are |

I’m into silver for the very long haul.

Because spot prices go up, but up as slow as a crawl.

If your into silver to get rich quick, like the greedy.

You’ll end up in the street begging for handouts and needy.

– jetshack



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Gold Clinging To $1200 For Dear Life As The Fiat Currency Crisis Goes Global

We have been talking about the currency crisis and currency wars that have been gripping various parts of the world.

Namely the South American countries of Argentina and Venezuela have seen their share of currency turmoil.

Well now, we’re not just isolated to South America as the currency crisis spreads.

First, not necessarily “crisis”, but devaluation, is the Chinese yuan.

The overwhelming belief is that the Chinese are devaluing the yuan as a weapon in the trade war:

There has also been plenty of talk about the yuan peg to gold, as in gold in dollars is moving with the dollar price of the yuan, tick for tick.

The yuan is taking a backseat, at least for now, however.

That is because Turkey is the latest nation to see its currency in utter crisis.

The move is rather parabolic:

That’s nearly 200 points in the move since last Thursday to Monday morning, from 5.27 to 7.12.


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Showdown! Gold & Silver Face The Fed & The BLS In A Critical And Pivotal Week

There is something I have noticed as I hone in and develop my theory of Peak Trump.

There is a continual rotation among the President’s support base to keep everybody constantly engaged.

It’s like one of those video games where you play the part of the waiter or waitress, and you have to keep all the customers current and happy.

At one point, the waiter or waitress gets over-run, because it is impossible to keep up, and so will be the decline after Peak Trump.

They are really questions of how fast and how far do we fall?

If we think about Peak Trump as one of those games, the President is the waiter, and all of his supporters are the ones eating at Trump Restaurant.

So what does the President do?

He floats from table to table trying to stay up on everything all at once.

How do we bring that into the real world?

The President floats from support base to support base to always keep them more or less engaged and believing.

Do we see that in the real world?

Yes we do.


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The Ball Is In The Fed’s Court: Will The Empire Strike Back?

Here’s the perfect example of the difficulty in understanding President Trump when it comes to him being either pure genius or just having dumb luck.

Last week, we all know what the President said – I think I wrote up three articles on it because I felt it was that important.

For those who don’t know what he said, the President said, two days in a row, that he is not pleased with a strong dollar or the Fed raising interest rates.

In other words, he is publicly calling for a weak dollar policy, and he is telling the Fed not to raise rates.

Here’s where that difficulty in interpreting the President comes in – The Fed can’t strike back this week.


Radio silence.

You see, traditionally, the Fed will maintain what is essentially “radio silence” the week before an FOMC meeting week, and that means they’re not parading the various Fed Heads around in speeches and television interviews to ‘jawbone’ the markets.

The next FOMC meeting is next Tuesday and Wednesday, with the statement and rate hike decision being released at 2:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday, August 1st. There is no press conference next week, and as such, most people are expecting the Fed to hold on interest rates (CME Group shows a probability of only 3.5% for a rate hike next week).

So I ask if the President is pure genius or if he just got lucky?

If he is pure genius, then he knew


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Gold And Silver Take A Back Seat To The Dollar This Week (That’s Not A Good Sign For The Metals)

Monday through Wednesday are going to be busy:

There’s market moving data in Retail Sales, Industrial Production and Housing Starts.

Additionally, twice a year the Fed Chair goes before congress in what is called the Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony, so on Tuesday Powell gets to play tee-ball with the Senate, and on Wednesday he will also be playing tee-ball with the House.

On the economic calendar, the week ends with much less action:

Geo-politically, today is the Trump-Putin Summit.

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Real Gains No Gimmicks: Now Is The Time For Gold & Silver To Shine

Time to see if gold & silver can shine.

It’s hard to get a better set-up than we have right now.

The events calendar is light this week, and it actually favors gold & silver.


Inflation data.

Or better said, stagflation data.

We get the Producer Price Index on Wednesday and the Consumer Price Index on Thursday.

The PPI measures what producers pay for the items they use to produce their goods. It will be interesting to see how the trade wars are now affecting producer costs.

For example, just how much has the cost of steel and aluminum gone up in price?

Furthermore, what will the producers do in the face of rising costs?

Let’s talk about a soda pop for a second.

If the cans are more expensive…

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No Pain No Gain: It’s Best To Prepare For Pain this Week In Gold & Silver

This is the week where both fundamentals and technical data dumps can have an effect on the cartel’s ability to smash the price of the metals.

Meaning they will be able to strong arm gold and silver with ease.

Let’s recap the fundamentals for the week.

On Wednesday the markets are closed for Fourth of July.

With markets closed on Wednesday, the cartel loves smashing around market holidays. Thanksgiving and Christmas are prime-time holidays for smashing too.

Something tells me that the latter half of the week will see an increase in people taking time off to spend with families or on vacations.

That said, there will likely be low trading volume this week, and recall that the cartel doesn’t need to dump as much paper to start the waterfall of selling, so we must assume they will not let the opportunity go to waste.

Additionally, on Thursday, we get the minutes from last month’s FOMC.

That is another trick the Fed manages to pull out of its sleeve each and every month. You see, they wait three weeks before releasing  the minutes of the meeting. Obviously they could be released the very next day in the age of computing and telecommunications, but, and they won’t tell you this, but the Fed likes waiting three weeks before releasing the minutes because if the markets react to a Fed meeting in any bad way, well, they can just go in and doctor-up the minutes to convey a particular message.

For example, if the June FOMC was perhaps too “hawkish”, which is the consensus, especially when judging by the decline in the Dow in the days following the June rate hike.

So on Thursday when we get the June Fed FOMC minutes, there could be a “dovish” spin on them to help prop the markets back up.

Of course, this is assuming that is what the Fed wants.

In my opinion, they still want to keep the stock market propped-up, unless of course, they are trying to gently, which is impossible, release some air out of the bubble.

If that is the case, then…


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Storm Clouds Are Gathering Over Gold & Silver But Right Now It’s The Calm Before The Storm

There is a flurry of activity on the events calendar this week.

We start the week with some housing data and Fed speeches:

Granted, those are lesser of the Fed Heads.

But come Wednesday, the data really starts getting important with the hot topic of the year – trade. Of course, there will be no trade surplus.

The question on everybody’s mind: Is the trade deficit shrinking, growing, or staying the same?

I think Wednesday’s trade data will be more important than most, especially since the trade wars have been such an intense issue in 2018.

Understand this caveat: With all the statistics, we have seen trends where the numbers are massaged to paint a rosier picture than what should be, and that’s giving them the benefit of this doubt. Many would argue the official statistics are outright statistical lies.

That will be something to think about when the Bureau of Economic Lies Analysis releases the May 2018 PCE report on Friday: (more…)

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Lowrider: Time To Find Out How Low Gold & Silver Can Go

On Friday I put up that dramatic spiking gold to silver ratio over a short time frame.

Today I’ll show what the GSR looks like on the standard chart we have been following for some time:

Now that is a dramatic move, but noticed how nothing really has changed.

The spike did not put in a higher-high, but rather, a lower-high (assuming the intra-day high of 79.29 holds). So the trend is still in place. As gold & silver rally, the ratio will be coming down for the right reasons (meaning that both gold & silver are moving higher in price).

Overnight and into this morning we see a bounce forming in silver: (more…)

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Cliffhanger: This Is Perhaps THE MOST Important Week Of The Year For Gold & Silver

It’s going to be a cliff hanger.

This week is going to be one of the most important weeks for gold & silver, both on the fundamental front and on the technical front.

Today is the lightest day when it comes to planned events, but things really start picking up on Tuesday:

On Tuesday we have the CPI inflation data release, but more importantly will be the fundamental news and progress of this supposed North Korea Summit.

The summit will be a real test of gold & silver, because whatever happens, the outcome will be spun by the mainstream financial press as “bad for gold & silver and good for the dollar”, especially if there is all of the sudden “world peace”.

But in today’s world, just like modern wars last days or even mere hours, will the peace last?

Does anyone remember those 103 missiles launched against Syria? What about Israel and Iran/Gaza Strip escalations?

If there is some sort of peace “deal”, will it last? And will it last more than a few months?

Swamp creature and warmonger neocon extraordinaire John Bolton always seems to be within spitting distance of President Trump, after all:

Why is the National Security Advisor at the right side of the President, when apparently, this is the seven closest countries on planet earth?

You would think that the President would have some of his economic team beside him, so that progress could be made on making America Great Again while still maintaining the semblance of friendship and coordination.

But nope. We get the War Cabinet. (more…)

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These Five Points Say Don’t Be Surprised If We Get A Nice Gold & Silver Rally This Week

Next week is the two day FOMC meeting followed by a press conference. Presumably there will be a 25 basis point rate “hike” on Wednesday, June 13th at 2:00 p.m. EST.

The markets are giving the odds of a rate hike of over 90%.

Why am I mentioning next week for this week’s SD Outlook? The week before the Fed meets, there is generally what can be described as “radio silence” by the Fed.

The logic goes like this: The Fed doesn’t want to spook the markets, or have to do circles because the markets don’t interpret an interview/statement “correctly”.

So we have basically a silence from the “jawboning”.

Thank God. Oh yeah, and good riddance to NY Fed Head Dudley who refuses to answer questions on gold!

That said, no need in putting up the events calendar this first full week of June, because other than trade data on Wednesday, there isn’t a whole lot of action.

Which brings us to the political and geopolitical fronts.

Politics can be even more dangerous for the markets than the Fed can.

Why? (more…)

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