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The Hour Is Getting Late

So here we are in Year 11 of the longest economic expansion/ stock market bubble in recent history, and by any measure, the hour is getting late, to quote Mr. Dylan:

So let us not talk falsely now
the hour is getting late
Bob Dylan, “All Along the Watchtower”

The question is: what would happen if we stop talking falsely? What would happen if we started talking about end-of-cycle rumblings, extreme disconnects between stocks and the real economy, the fact that “the Fed is the market” for 11 years running, that diminishing returns are setting in, as the Fed had to panic-print $400 billion in a few weeks to keep this sucker from going down, and that trees don’t grow to the troposphere, no matter how much the Fed fertilizes them?

When do we stop talking falsely about expansions that never end, and stock melt-ups that never end? Just as there is a beginning, there is always an ending, and yet here we are in Year Eleven, talking as if the expansion and the stock market bubble can keep going another eleven years because “the Fed has our backs.”

Take a quick glance at the chart below of the Fed balance sheet and tell me this is just the usual plain-vanilla, ho-hum, nothing out of the ordinary Year 11 of a “recovery” that will run to 15 years and then 20 years and then 50 years–as long as the Fed panic-prints, there’s no end in sight.

So after 9 years of “recovery,” the Fed finally starts reducing its balance sheet, peeling off about $700 billion over the course of 18 months.

Nice–only $3 trillion more to dump to return to the pre-crisis asset levels of less than $800 billion. In other words, the Fed’s “normalization” was a travesty of a mockery of a sham, a pathetically modest reduction that barely made a dent in its bloated balance sheet.

Knock a couple trillion off and we’ll be impressed with your “normalization.”

(more…)

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Storm Clouds Are Gathering Over Gold & Silver But Right Now It’s The Calm Before The Storm

There is a flurry of activity on the events calendar this week.

We start the week with some housing data and Fed speeches:

Granted, those are lesser of the Fed Heads.

But come Wednesday, the data really starts getting important with the hot topic of the year – trade. Of course, there will be no trade surplus.

The question on everybody’s mind: Is the trade deficit shrinking, growing, or staying the same?

I think Wednesday’s trade data will be more important than most, especially since the trade wars have been such an intense issue in 2018.

Understand this caveat: With all the statistics, we have seen trends where the numbers are massaged to paint a rosier picture than what should be, and that’s giving them the benefit of this doubt. Many would argue the official statistics are outright statistical lies.

That will be something to think about when the Bureau of Economic Lies Analysis releases the May 2018 PCE report on Friday: (more…)

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Lowrider: Time To Find Out How Low Gold & Silver Can Go

On Friday I put up that dramatic spiking gold to silver ratio over a short time frame.

Today I’ll show what the GSR looks like on the standard chart we have been following for some time:

Now that is a dramatic move, but noticed how nothing really has changed.

The spike did not put in a higher-high, but rather, a lower-high (assuming the intra-day high of 79.29 holds). So the trend is still in place. As gold & silver rally, the ratio will be coming down for the right reasons (meaning that both gold & silver are moving higher in price).

Overnight and into this morning we see a bounce forming in silver: (more…)

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Make It Or Break It Week: Either Gold & Silver Or The Cartel Will Set The Tone Going Into Summer

Gold & silver really need to rally this week.

It really boils down to one word: Momentum.

My call has been for the rally to begin this week. However, if the rally doesn’t begin this week, I feel we can kiss any hopes of a rally goodbye until the second half of June.

Why?

Well, much of it has to do with next week.

You see, U.S. markets are closed next Monday for Memorial Day.

Point one: The cartel loves to strong arm the markets on holiday shortened weeks.

And if that were not bad enough: Next Friday is the BLS Jobs Report.

Point two: The cartel loves to smash the metals on Jobs Friday.

Moving past next week, we have a week of pain, which would lead us into the second week of June, and that week culminates with the FOMC (presumed) rate hike and Fed Head Love Fest (otherwise known as MSM press conference after the statement).

What does all of this mean? (more…)

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Gold & Silver Are Out Of The Frying Pan And Into The Fire With This Week’s Double-Smash Potential

There’s difficulty on on the fundamental front.

On Wednesday, we get double-smash potential:

We have the May FOMC Announcement (no press conference this month), and we have the private sector jobs report (ADP).

If the Fed is hawkish and actually hikes, that is definitely not priced into the markets, and although gold & silver rise in price in a rising rate environment, the ESF and the Fed would use the cover of their hawkishness to smash the metals. (more…)

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There Is Something Gold & Silver Must Do Before the Rally Can Begin In Earnest

Amazing.

The war cycle is in line with the news cycle, and it’s even in line with the market cycle.

You see, when market negative news hits the tape, it could wreak serious havoc on the markets, and as such, it’s always best to have market devastating news, like, oh a war, happen on a Friday, wrapped up by Saturday morning, so that by the time markets open Sunday evening it was as if nothing had happened.

Just amazing.

On Saturday I warned that gold and silver would be sold coming off of the “mission accomplished” news.

That’s exactly what happened.

They might even succeed in smashing silver back down below the 50-day moving average:

In fact, I’m expecting it.

Perhaps my negativity today is just what we need to get these metals turned around?

Now I’m not capitulating by any stretch of the matter, I’m just tired of people talking about all the great things President Trump has done, how by spending billions of dollars the U.S. doesn’t have by launching 103 missiles into a country Trump said was not our business to be in, and after everybody thinks President Trump has made American Great Again, just have faith in the plan, etc.

What I see are President Trump supporters getting sold down the river.

And I voted for him. I believed what he said because he actually said some truth bombs during his campaign. And he knows gold, and actually said good things about gold as he was a candidate.

But now?

I dunno.

I see Trumps supporters disillusioned as they’re getting sold down the river. You see, half the country was sold down the river on the Obama Hopium, and now it’s time for the other half.

But I digress, this is not political commentary but market commentary.

But it does have a point: What has been solved geo-politically? (more…)

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Waiting On A Catalyst: These Markets Don’t Need A Reason Just An Excuse

For the mainstream financial cheerleaders, press and pundits, this is a Goldilocks week of market events – no too many, and no too few, but just right.

Starting out the week we see events and data releases are somewhat slow, but inflation statistics will take center stage by midweek:

The PPI on Tuesday is the Producer Price Index. This is basically the prices paid by producers (as in manufacturers, etc) for their materials which are then used in the production of the goods and services sold. In other words, it measures inflation at the production level. When prices go up on say, aluminum, and Coca Cola needs a bunch of it, there becomes pressure to raise prices on twelve packs of coke. That is a classic example of “cost push” inflation.

On Wednesday, we get the CPI, or the Consumer Price Index. That’s the street level inflation measure. What are the prices of the goods and services of the items we use? If that twelve pack of coke went up $.75 because of the increase in the price of aluminum, that would be relfected in the CPI. Generally speaking, we see the increase in the PPI first, and then after the producers re-calculate their bottom lines and either absorb costs or raise prices, we see increases in the CPI.

Also note on Wednesday afternoon we get the March Fed Minutes released at 2:00 p.m. EST. The release accomplishes two things in the eyes of the Fed, bankers, and by extension, the government:

  1. Any narrative that needs re-worked since the last FOMC can be reworked, scripted, and then tactfully placed into the minutes.
  2. It’s an afternoon release so the timing can help set up the markets to end the midweek in a certain direction and with certain momentum.

So while the markets will be looking forward to the release of the March FOMC minutes, it’s really nothing more than passive-aggressive propagandized jawboning.

To finish out the week we have more of the jawboning: (more…)

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The Battle Rages On With Gold & Silver Getting The Upper Hand On The Cartel

On Monday I said every inch on the charts would be hard fought this week.

Check out the gold to silver ratio:

Wow those gyrations.

We’ve gone from over 83 to 79 and back up to above 82.

I would like to clarify my “hard fought” statement like this:

The action so far this week is like watching a football game that ends up 63 – 59, as in all offense and no defense.

Click here to read the rest of this article on Silver Doctors

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Gold & Silver Are Chipping Away At The Cartel’s Wall Of Resistance

Looking at the calendar this week, we’ve got some good old-fashioned Fed jawboning most days:

A double dose of Kashkari starts the week, but come Hump Day we’ve got Bullard and Mester on deck.

The big event, however, happens this Friday:

On Friday, the Bureau of Lies Labor Statistics releases the March BLS Jobs Report, also known as Nonfarm Payrolls.

Wednesday we will get a taste of March job creation with the private sector compilation in the jobs situation, known as ADP, so we must be on guard on come Wednesday and especially Friday because Jobs Friday is one of the favorite times the cartel loves to smash. Especially since the data release comes out a whole hour before the market opens.

The cartel can really muscle a thinly traded market at that time.

The point of the fundamental factors this week is this: The cartel will look to chip away here and there where it can.

Helping the cartel, for at least one more day, is the fact that while the U.S. is back open for business, much of the world in all hemispheres is still closed in celebration of Easter. (more…)

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Gold And Silver Looking Bullish Going Into This Good Friday Shortened Trading Week

This is a short trading week but that doesn’t stop the Fed from trying to jawbone the markets:

We’ve got Fed Heads going at it every day this week, and we have early afternoon and late afternoon speeches today just to make sure the markets start off in their Fed approved ways.

But today, in China anyway, and to a lesser extent here, there was another story that stole the show: The petroyuan.

Last night (Monday in China) the petroyuan was officially born:

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is the global benchmark for crude oil prices.

INE is the crude oil futures contract that trades on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange. Here’s some boring legalese about the oil contract if anybody is so inclined to read some Google translated Mandarin Chinese (I presume).

While we are not seeing an immediate implosion of the oil markets or anything like that, it is important to note that China is the number one oil importer in the world, so it stands to reason that over time, the petroyuan will come to dominate the global oil market and take over as the benchmark oil price.

What is good for the petroyuan is bad for the petro-dollar, but for now, the importance of the petroyuan is that it is just another step away from the dollar.

China now has an oil futures market. A few years back China began trading gold via the Shanghai Gold Exchange (2014). A couple of years after that (2016), the Renminbi, another name for Chinese Yuan, was included in the International Monetary Fund’s ‘Special Drawing Rights’ basket of currencies, boosting Chinese currency to “reserve” status right alongside of the dollar, the euro, yen, and the British pound.

Click here to read the rest of this Monday Outlook on Silver Doctors

 

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Hitting The Pause Button: Gold & Silver Have Been Paused But The Week Might Not End That Way

Those who aren’t pausing are the various Fed Heads.

Rant on:

In fact, we’ll be getting a heavy doses of Fedspeak through Hump Day:

Seven times before Wednesday to implement the Fed’s favorite policy tool: The “Jawbone”.

They’ll be looking to clarify anything that is still left in the air from Powell’s first Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony, and we can be sure the mainstream financial press will cheer-lead all the way.

The week is also important because of what we have coming down the pike on Friday:

Recall that while everyday is a day for smashin’ the metals in the eyes of the cartel, this Friday is one of those “extra special” days: Non-farm payrolls.

And if for some reason the markets do not like the number of jobs that were created in the month of February, you know, because it was only transitional because the weather was too cold, or was it too hot, ah, either way, Evans will be there to give the needed spin in the early afternoon in case the BLS Jobs Report does cause some indigestion.

– Rant off.

The big fundamental news of the week, however, would be if there is increasing talk or actually action with regards to President Trump’s proposed tariffs on steel and aluminum. The world stands by ready to see what is to come of The trade Wars. (more…)

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Anticipating The Turn In Gold & Silver: As Early As This Afternoon?

Once again let’s start with the gold to silver ratio:

These are looking like the last chances to play off of the ratio right now. It is very rare that it takes over 82 ounces of silver to buy one single ounce of gold.

Could the ratio go higher?

It could, but upside potential is extremely limited because everybody sees the same thing: Silver is severely undervalued.

There seems to be some debate as to whether gold leads silver or silver leads gold. Every pundit and analyst is adamant about which leads which.

Here’s the thing: It depends.

Right now, however, due to the extreme in the gold to silver ratio, it certainly seems that silver is set to lead gold.

Regardless, silver moves faster and farther than gold because it is a smaller market than gold, and when investors come into the sector, more investors come in to silver than into gold, so at one point silver will really get moving and out-perform gold. (more…)

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